Betting Odds Changes
Sports betting odds comparison，live odds changes for online bookmakers and asian handicap betting. Tutorial presented by Sports-Beting-Winners.com on how to change odds format at 12Bet.com. Find out more about this awesome bookmaker by going to.
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Why do odds change unpredictably in sports betting? That is a question that many people ask themselves when they engage in this gambling activity. Many of them give up because they cannot understand why it seems so unpredictable. Giving up is not the answer. Instead, understand this form of gambling so that you can take advantage of its weaknesses. For example, let go of the idea that sports betting is unpredictable. It is not. Instead, the odds change because of various factors and you can take advantage of them. Unsurprisingly, gamblers make millions in sports betting as soon as they realize these facts. You can make millions as well. Here is a comprehensive overview of why odds change in sports betting. You will also find suggestions to help you take advantage of these changes.
Early Betting Odds
How To Read Betting Odds
Did you know that bookmakers offer an initial price on a given event? For example, most bookmakers in baseball offer this price a few hours before the game starts. Bookmakers in tennis may offer it a few days before the game. In soccer, they do it a week or so before the match takes place. Odds-compliers play a critical role in the determination of these early prices. Remember, bookmakers have to set prices based on the probability of outcomes. They also have to do it based on the likelihood of making a profit. Consider a sports bet on tennis. Odd-compliers may set odds of 10/11. In this case, bookmakers would consider playing equal bets on each player and receiving a guaranteed return on one of them. However, this scenario happens rarely. Instead, the odd-compliers place set odds based on their subjective analysis of possible outcomes. These odds will change because of their subjectivity. Therefore, the profits earned by bookmakers will fluctuate as well.
Price Movements Explained
Life does not stop after odds-compliers set a given price. Instead, it changes leading to new odds. Consequently, new prices will be necessary as well. This necessity arises from the fact that the previous prices were compatible with the early odds. They are incompatible with the new ones. For example, imagine that the odds were 10/11 on each play two days before the event. However, one of the players failed to train for the event as the material day approached. Would the odds remain the same after the relevant parties became aware of this information?
No, it would not. Instead, one player would be at 4/6 while another one would be at 11/10. These changing odds would lead to changes in prices as well. In other words, bookmakers react to this information and they do so quickly. Many people view these reactions are ad hoc and unpredictable. Avoid this mistake. Instead, remember that there are incidents taking place behind the scene. These incidents influence the odds and the corresponding prices. Learn about them and then make the appropriate changes to your sports betting strategy.
Response to Changing Odds
Bookmakers can bet heavily on a particular player. A bookmaker seeks to balance his book as soon as he realizes that his cash backs a particular player only. Consequently, they will shorten the odds that they have on the player that is taking most of the money. Conversely, they will increase their bets on the other player. Doing so would help them even their books. It may seem as though they are making rash decisions at the last minute, but that is not the case. Instead, each decision they make is a response to the likelihood that they will make a profit. Therefore, balancing their books to a given degree helps them stay afloat. Learning about why people place so much money on particular players would help you predict these changes. For example, placing a lot of money on popular players is common in sports betting.
Benefitting from Changing Odds
Benefitting from these changes in odds is now possible because you know why they occur. You also have an idea of when they will occur. Can you put this information into good use?
Remember, knowledge is power. As previously mentioned, benefiting from these odds is possible if you seek as much information on relevant players as possible. Set the price based on the information that you are receiving instead of what you already know. Another way of benefitting from these changes in odds is by limiting your reaction to false changes in price. For example, significant price fluctuations without a compelling reason behind them indicate that the price fluctuation is false. Changing your bet on any gambling platform including an online casino Canada based on false information leads to losses in most cases.
Making Money in Gambling by Watching the Odds
There are many times in gambling when you see a price you like, but just as you go to take it the price moves and you miss out. The following article explains the various reasons why these price moves happen, and knowing these reasons, how you might be able to use them to your advantage in betting.
This overview is part of the exensive library of betting strategy articles here at High Tech Gambling. These range from overview / beginner pieces though to advanced guides. Here are some popular examples:
- Value Betting for Profit (part 1 of a 5 part series)
- Betting Psychology Series (part 1 of 3)
Why Odds Change – Early Betting Odds
Depending on which sport you are gambling on, at some point before the event takes place a bookmaker will offer a first price on the event. A baseball game may offer the first price on the morning of the game (having played the night before), a tennis match may be priced a couple of days before (when the match-up is set) or a soccer game may be priced up a week or so beforehand. These early prices will be set by the team of odds-compilers and will be based around the probabilities of the outcomes. As an example, two days before a tennis match the odds-compilers may not be able to split the two players, and therefore offer odds of 10/11 (1.91) about both players. In an ideal world the bookmaker would now receive an equal amount of money on each player and guarantee a profit. In this case, if they took a thousand pounds on each player, they’d receive £2,000 and only pay out £1909 to the winning bet – a guaranteed profit of £91, with no risk at all. On some occasions this is exactly what will happen, a great and relatively simple situation for the bookmaker, and if every book was like this the job of a bookmaker would, as well as being very profitable, be extremely easy.
Why Odds Change – Reasons for Price Movement
We now move to an hour before the tennis match, and the odds of the match now look completely different – one player is now 4/6 (1.66) and the other is 11/10 (2.1). So what could be the reason for this? There are actually two potential reasons.
The first reason is that something has happened to one of the players in the time between publishing the early price and now. Maybe the player hasn’t trained because of a strain, or one of the players turned an ankle in training – maybe a player tweeted either good or bad news about their preparation for the match. Bookmakers will react to this information, and move the odds accordingly.
The second reason is that one of the players has been bet on heavily, much more money coming in for that player over the other. When a bookmaker takes a majority of money on one particular selection they will have an uneven book, making a loss on that player, and a profit on the other – so they will shorten the odds on the player taking the money, and lengthen the other player. This should achieve the objective of evening their books up somewhat, if it doesn’t, they may well shorten the odds on that player again. They may keep shortening the odds, or make a stand, thinking they have taken a lot of money at bad odds for that player.
So the next question is – why is so much money coming for one player? One reason is that the bookmaker has actually made a mistake and their initial odds were well out of line – and this can be the case, especially in the less popular markets. However, the most likely scenario here is that the player being backed is simply more popular. When I say popular, it’s not necessarily in the sense that they are well known, or well liked (although in many cases this will be the reason), but it might be that a large circulation newspaper has tipped the player to win, or a global website has done a focus on the player, or some other reason to do with the media.
Why Odds Change – Taking Advantage of Changing Odds
You now know why the odds might have changed, but how can you take advantage of this price movement?
The first way is to be on top of the news. You know that the two tennis players are priced at 10/11 two days before the match, and then you see a tweet from a leading sports website that says “Player A is a doubt because of a wrist injury” (in other sports you might see, as examples “Wayne Rooney is out injured for Manchester United tomorrow”, or “LeBron James will be rested for tonight’s Heat game”). You quickly go to your bookmaker, and see that the price is still 10/11 on both players – take the 10/11 on the player who isn’t injured, the odds will surely move soon, and you’ll have a great value bet.
The second way to take advantage is by not falling for “false” price changes. You agree with the opening line on that tennis match, the players are indeed evenly matched. However, as stated earlier, one player is now 4/6 and the other 11/10. This time you see no real reason for this – there are no reports of injuries, but you know that that the player whose price has shortened is much better known player, and has half a million followers on twitter, and you figure this is behind the price movement – (you could use the same reasoning for a popular, well supported soccer/baseball/football/hockey/basketball team). In this case, you are now receiving a good price on the other player, odds of 11/10(2.1) on a real 50/50 shot – a great value bet.
College Football Betting Odds
Why Odds Change – Knowing the Difference
Understanding why the odds might have changed on a sporting event is a tricky skill, but in this day and age of 24 hour news you can be on top of things just as much as a bookmaker might be, or even one step ahead if you follow the right people on twitter or use the right websites (where perhaps in times past bookmakers may have had an advantage in this area). Be quick when you see something that you think might have an effect on the odds – you won’t be the only one spotting it, but you might have a head start on the bookmaker. If odds do change when you see no reason for it, give serious consideration to backing either the team or player who is now longer than you think they should be.